GROWING DOUBTS OF A PASSIONATE REMAINER

For the first time ever I have had doubts about the wisdom of stopping Brexit. This is not because I have suddenly been converted to a Brexiteer, quite the opposite, for I believe Brexit will be a disaster, far worse than some imagine. No, the reason being is precisely that I am a passionate European, and fiercely believe in the EU project. So these thoughts clarified only after reading a Der Spiegel editorial, which pointed out how damaging a divided and fractious UK would be inside the EU.

NOT A GROWN-UP COUNTRY

Suppose Remain win, even by a sizable majority, we would still be lumbered with Farage, and the whole neo-fascist Vote Leave movement, now crying foul. The mischief this crowd could cause within the EU after a failed Leave attempt can only be imagined. Whatever else these last few years have shown is that we are a country not grown up enough to be a member of a complex multi-national project like the EU. We need to go away and either grow up enough to re-engage sensibly or sink into decline and irrelevance.  Leaving will provide hard and bitter lessons, but unless we learn them we will continue to be infantilised by our history and delusions of imperial glory. For the time being the EU is better off without us.
This is not a state of affairs that I welcome, it is humiliating for the country I care about and will do untold damage to those least able to protect themselves. I also respect those who think I am wrong and who continue to fight to Remain. However, as things stand I see no alternative. Whilst across Europe the Union has recorded record heights of popularity, in part fuelled by the example of Brexit, there is a growing populist authoritarianism, - particularly exemplified by developments in Poland and Hungary, - and with the rise of the far right in Austria and Germany, funded and supported by an ever more confident Putin, Europe needs stability at present. A malign UK, represented by the likes of Theresa May, can only hinder that.

Arron Banks and Nigel Farage
There will be one, and only one, Brexit dividend, and that will surely be the demise of the Brexiteers, as their fantasies are exposed and the harsh light of economic reality is shone upon this small offshore European island outside of one of the world’s largest trading blocs. They will, of course, attempt to blame others, but if we let them get away with this then I think we rather deserve our fate.
Other things might follow, Scotland, already semi-detached will move closer to full independence, with the prospect of joining the EU acting as a magnet. What will happen in Northern Ireland is anybody’s guess, but the Unionist parties have so badly miscalculated that stronger ties with the Republic seem certain, and even with some sort of unity between the Republic and the North developing. Wales and the north of England could be the big losers, though living standards overall will fall. London will survive better than most and could even, given more autonomy, reinvent itself as a creative hub, with tax concessions and a strong figure like Sadiq Khan selling the capital on a world stage.
What then of the Conservative and Labour parties? It is difficult to see how either can survive in its present form, though, for a range of reasons, not least its ageing, positively geriatric, membership and the scale of divisions within the party, the Conservatives look the most vulnerable. Whilst a post-Brexit Labour party, with Corbynites, - Corbyn himself will not stay much longer, - in the ascendant what incentive will there be for pro Remain supporters, MP’s, or voters, to stick with the party? Corbyn’s Cuban style People’s Republic of England and Wales will not, of course, emerge triumphant from the wreckage of Brexit. Though another casualty will be the social democratic model of the state, though some sort of political re-alignment might well rescue the best of what we have.

The winners will be, well, aside from Trump and Putin, who the winners always are, hedge funds, the super-rich, asset strippers and other creatures who thrive on catastrophe capitalism. Amongst whom you will find many a Brexiteer, living, of course, with an EU passport with multiple homes across. The EU, particularly the warmer regions. They may be ruthless crooks and profoundly immoral, but they are not stupid. 

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