THE ABYSS


A Weimar Monarchy

Freud wrote that humans are incapable of fully comprehending their own extinction.  A similar incomprehension I believe can happen on a much larger scale, that is with respect to whole societies, and this denial is particularly pronounced in the Anglosphere democracies.  The denial takes the form of reasoning that, despite Trump and Brexit, the truly bad stuff cannot happen here. This complacent reasoning has first to overcome the obstacle that the bad stuff is already happening, and secondly that simply waiting for Trump’s term of office to expire or for Brexit to be done and dusted will not do. The damage done, not least in the great divisions created, will not disappear any time soon, indeed with respect to Brexit, we have not reached anything like the nadir yet. Already the fascist trope about being stabbed in the back/betrayed by cosmopolitans’narrative is being promoted by hard-line Brexiteers. Whilst the coming economic problems are unlikely to be laid at the door of those responsible.  We face at least a decade of conflict, as the consequences of Brexit play out.

To some extent we do not know what life will be like outside the EU, - or for that matter any other major trading bloc, - except that it is unlikely to be good. The real debate now is over just how bad. The most likely outcome will be a recession; how deep or how long term depends on the power of the economy to withstand the shock of exit. Experience does not make for optimism. We could experience a perfect storm of inflation, sterling collapsing, a flight of investment capital to the EU and elsewhere, unemployment rising and, with the lost revenue making a hole in government coffers, cuts in services, services already cut to the bone. The NHS will be particularly hard hit.
We would survive, but what kind of society will emerge from such a scenario? Rising right-wing fascism and a growing gulf in wealth between the rich few and the many will fuel bitterness and a sense of having been robbed of the ‘benefits’ of Brexit. In short we will become a sort of Weimar monarchy, with the steady encroachment of a vibrant, nostalgic right, selling dreams of greatness, - once, of course, the chosen 'others' are dealt with.  The left a half-dead toothless tiger, made rotten from within by Corbyn, will prove useless, indeed many former Corbynites will switch their allegiance to the Right, who will have the merit of looking like winners.
A nightmare scenario?  Perhaps, but do not imagine the UK is somehow immune to a slide toward Orban/Erdogan/Putin, and of course Trump style fascism. We are already witnessing some of the elements described above beginning to coalesce. Again, in short, we are already dangerously close to the abyss.  

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