DESPERATION

 Trump, Putin and the Looming Threat



For the first time in my life my political gaze has been primarily across the Atlantic, rather on domestic politics here in the UK. For the stakes involved in the forthcoming Presidential election could not be greater. Trump’s election, coming so soon after the Brexit vote represented the highpoint of populist neo fascism and the Putin project.  Putin knows that the collapse of the Trump presidency and the election of Joe Biden will represent an ominous turn for Russia on the world stage. For Trump and those enablers around him the consequences will be more concrete and personal, some will surely go to jail. Trump should go to jail, there is a positive embarrassment of riches with regard to the list of offences for which he can be charged, obstruction of justice, fraud, electoral violations, non payment of taxes...the list goes on. The primary crime to which he should be charged is, of course, treason.

Stakes this high bring with them the attendant danger of desperation, particularly with respect to Putin and the Trump camp. With just over a week to go how will this desperation manifest itself.

Apparently, some time in 2016 Putin was advised that the hack and dump attack on the US and employment of IRA disinformation tactics had gone too far and that he should row back. He ignored this advice and, drunk with success, threw caution to the wind; he burned his boats. Now that short term calculation threatens to come back and haunt him. This at a time when problems closer to home are beginning to crowd in, from Belarus to Armenia and Azerbaijan. Putin is a rat facing the prospect of being cornered. How might he respond?

For Trump, the options are beginning to run out, for like a monkey in a pen he has been throwing his pooh at anyone within range, to little substantive effect. How might he now respond?  Here are my worst fears, some more plausible, and consequently more likely, than others.

1. Some unforeseen ‘October Surprise.’ This would have to be a big deal indeed to impact on the result at this stage. Attempts thus far, the Biden son’s laptop and other smears have gained little traction. Moreover, his opponents have shown they can deliver a few surprises of their own, e.g. the Chinese bank accounts.  The best he can probably hope for is to make the result closer and thus more open to dispute. This leads us directly to the next option.

2.Electoral disruption, and concerted attempts to discredit the election process and result. As a strategy this has attractions for both Trump and Putin, since it would lead to endless court tussles and even if Biden eventually triumphs his presidency would be weakened whilst calling members of the Trump administration to account more difficult.

3. Trump loses but for reasons tied up with issues outlined above, refuses to concede. This has all the problems outlined above with the added spectre of Trump having to be forcibly evicted from the White House by the FBI and a phalanx of marines. Would he really court that?

4. Trump losses, concedes then seeks to pardon all and sundry including himself and tries to inflict maximum chaos during the transition. This is not the bullet proof option it might seem, since whilst he may try to pardon himself- a move that is sure to be challenged, - such a pardon will not cover state crimes committed in NY and other states, nor does he have the power to magically wave away his debts and creditors. Of course, a pardon would involve the admission of wrongdoing, Trump’s record in this respect is not strong.

All these scenarios may seem attractive to both Trump or Putin, however they will be less attractive to his army of enablers, - pardons notwithstanding, - since they will be left to deal with the consequences and such tactics could only further discredit the Republican party with mainstream voters. For Putin, the attractions will represent the appeal of a strategy that would be narrowly short term and high risk.  For one thing that is worth bearing in mind is that the forces arraigned against Trump are extraordinarily formidable. Trump, and by extension Putin, has added enemies to an already considerable list, within the army, the FBI, and significant Republicans and ex-Republicans.

Putin will face the possibility of an extremely hostile White House, and his past actions will, hopefully, face serious consequences. Would Putin really want to up the ante at this late stage? He is of course trapped, a prisoner of his own making. Will it be a case of in for a penny with him stacking all his chips on destabilising the US with the hope of minimising the consequences?

For Trump, the future is beginning to look bleak, has this hit home yet, or does he imagine he holds a get out of jail free card.  

The alternative to these scenarios is a vote tsunami, a landslide victory too large to seriously dispute. Though I doubt even then that Trump will go quietly. Whilst Putin faces a serious threat to his geopolitical strategy if, as seems likely, Trump is turned out. Fasten your seat belts we are in for a bumpy ride.

 


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