RUSSIA AND THE CRIMEA: THE DANZIG OF THE UKRAINIAN RUSSIAN DISPUTE

So surprise surprise, Vladimir Putin has not opted for the softly softly diplomatic approach to the Ukraine uprising. As I write this the story is fast developing, with the Crimean peninsular centre stage. This development was predictable for anyone with the slightest knowledge of the history of the region. What has gone largely unreported in the west is the fact that Khrushchev 'gave' this predominantly Russian region to the Ukraine in 1954. It could never occur to anyone back in those days that the USSR would collapse, and that Ukraine would no longer be a part of it. This transfer was made ‘illegally’ under the then Soviet constitution and a very great many Russians, particularly those living in the peninsular, have never been reconciled to this state of affairs. I think it a pretty safe bet that Putin is one of them.

In 1939 Danzig was unmistakably a German city whose population had voted overwhelmingly in favour of unification with Germany. German claims to Danzig were legitimate; its separation from the rest of Germany was one of the least defensible articles of the treaty of Versailles. The problem lay with the person and regime making the claim. Had the claim been made by a Social Democratic German state some sort of deal, probably in the face of Polish resistance, could have been made.
So it is with the Crimea. Unfortunately for Putin an agreement was signed in 1994 with the Unites States, Russia and the UK guarantying Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity in exchange for [Ukraine] surrendering its nuclear arsenal. They also agreed to ‘refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate Ukraine to their own interests’ (Budapest Protocols). This agreement, though Putin would never have signed such a document, held good so long as Putin successfully held the Ukraine within the Russian orbit. With the Orange Revolution and now the February uprising, Putin’s strategy has unravelled. In truth he overplayed his hand last year by coercing Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych into backing away from greater alignment with the EU. Now just as he feels this separation most keenly he is presented with an opportunity to exploit the anxieties of the Russian speaking majority in the region.
Over the Crimea Putin has a good case, the Russian population would probably vote overwhelmingly for reunification. Should he choose to patiently negotiate with the Ukraine, EU and the US he could certainly negotiate a package giving increased autonomy to the region, a package that protected Russian strategic interests, especially the presence of the Black Sea fleet at Sevastopol.
Putin however does not do subtle, nor does he do patience, he is too stupid. So we now see goons in full combat gear without identification markings seizing key strategic points,* being reinforced by large transport aircraft disgorging troops into the isthmus.
This is Georgia all over again. Putin sees negotiating over events ‘in his own backyard’ as humiliating, he will not do it. It is likely that the non Russian population of Crimea will be paying the price for Putin’s impatience.

*Putin’s Russian media would have you believe that these are merely concerned Russian speakers on the isthmus. Fortunately they seem to have all the training and equipment of special forces; handy that!

   
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