INTERESTING TIMES

WILL THE LIB DEMS BRAKE CAMERON’S RUSH TO RIG THE CONSTITUTION

The triumph of the No campaign and with it Scotland’s continued commitment to the union, whilst a relief, to those like me who believed that a split would have been disastrous for working people both north and south of the border, feels like a curiously hollow victory. For we awoke not only to victory but to find ourselves enmeshed in a first class gold plated omnishambles. No sooner had the result been announced than David Cameron appeared in front of Downing street with a not particularly well disguised plan to shaft the Labour Party. Cameron now seeking to link the promises made to the Scottish people before the referendum vote to ending Scottish MP’s participation in English matters. As the Labour Party is heavily reliant upon votes from the Celtic fringe some Tories are now salivating at the prospect of England becoming a one party state run by the Tories.[1]  
Politics being full of irony, Cameron owes his political life to Gordon Brown, a man he loathes and the Labour Party- which he is now trying to stitch up. As John Major once observed, "It's a funny old world."
That Cameron should seek to completely rearrange the British constitution for short term political advantage removes what little credibility he has left. However he is a Prime Minister no longer in control of his party. A good portion of his backbenchers now despise him and are infuriated that he made such a comprehensive offer to Scotland of new powers without consulting his party. Possibly without even consulting his cabinet.
 In the background is the shadow of UKIP and Nigel Farage. Many Tory backbenchers find Farage a more attractive figure than Cameron, though do not want to jump ship. I call them the UKIPories. They will continue to make Cameron’s Tory party more of a fratricidal fifth form than a political party. 
If Miliband is caught in the trap of the ‘West Lothian Question’ Cameron is caught in the trap laid by UKIP. UKIP will always portray Cameron as a closet pro-European, however the further right he moves to appease his virulently anti-European backbenchers the more centre ground he concedes to Labour. There is the added problem for Cameron of the EU referendum. Should the Tories be re-elected they will have to deliver on their promise of an EU referendum. Should the Out campaign win in England but lose in Scotland what then? Do they imagine the Scottish parliament will then say, fair enough, if this is what our southern neighbours want?
In the short term Miliband’s difficulties are greater. English votes for English laws has about it the same immediate appeal as ‘no taxation without representation.’ The issue however is not that simple as Will Hutton points out in a considered piece in the Observer. Disentangling what matters are English only is going to be contentious. What about funding arrangements for the NHS including the ongoing attempt to privatise services? After all health is a devolved issue.
The key players in the coming weeks will be the Liberal Democrats. Cameron does not enjoy a majority in Parliament and would not win a vote on the issue of linking changes to the devolution settlement in Scotland to matters affecting England. In the dog days of the coalition will Clegg really want to assist David Cameron in ‘monumental political gerrymandering – inflating a manageable constitutional flaw into an attempt to organise the state around the interests of one party?’[2]
We are it seems destined to live, as the Chinese say, in interesting times.


[1] Of course the picture is much more complex, whilst Labour will struggle to gain a majority in England it is not impossible, Tony Blair achieved it. Moreover the Tories are wholly absent from the large metropolitan centres like Liverpool, Newcastle and Manchester. London is a Labour City, Boris Johnson is an anomaly. It is inconceivable that these regions would put up with permanent Tory rule, there would eventually be the kind of revolt we have seen in Scotland.

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